Tuesday, July 6, 2010

Chula Vista, CA 91913 Housing Statistics

The median $/Sqft of properties over the past year increased 2% and between the two most recent quarters they declined 1%.  These are negligible changes and indicate a stable property values trend.  There are currently 2.6 months of housing inventory indicating a balanced supply and demand trend.  Over the past month, properties sold in an average of 75 days and a median of 40 days after being listed indicating a marketing time trend of under 3 months.

Statistics indicate historically high foreclosure activity which suggests that future declines from foreclosures and other distressed selling activity, such as short sales, are possible.  They also suggest that banks may be withholding inventory from the market, presumably to promote property value stabilization and increases, and that property value statistics may not reflect natural market forces and may not be reliable.  A steady supply of potential foreclosures indicate that the risk level for market declines will continue into the near future.

I find it important to note that although the ratio of bank and short sales have declined over the past year, property values have remained steady which may indicate actual/net property value declines.  Bank sales and short sales tend to sell for less, on average, than conventional sales, if for no other reason than they tend to more often been in substandard condition.

Foreclosure / Short Sale Related Statistics:
Past 30 Days
* 77 Total Sales
* 30% of all sales were bank sales
* 34% of all sales were short sales
* 64% of all sales were bank sales or short sales

1 Year Ago
* 86 Total Sales
* 57% of all sales were bank sales
* 19% of all sales were short sales
* 76% of all sales were bank sales or short sales

* 144 Bank owned homes
* 331 Properties in foreclosure
* 229 Properties with mortgages 60+ days late but not in foreclosure
* 26 Bank listings in MLS (active, in escrow, and awaiting bank approval)
* 50% of bank owned homes not actively listed in the MLS
* 14 Months of current and potential bank sale and short sale inventory for bank owned properties, properties in foreclosure, and properties with mortgages 60+ days late and based on last months sales in the MLS.

Brian Ward
Real Estate Appraiser