Tuesday, June 22, 2010

San Jacinto, CA Housing Statistics

Statistics indicate that property values in San Jacinto, CA have increased 6% over the past year with the trend continuing to the present.  Property values have increased 1.4% over the past 90 days when compared with the previous 90 days.  The demand/supply trend is in balance, indicated by 1.6 months of current inventory.  The marketing time trend is less than 90 days, indicated by a median of 22 days over the past 90 days.

In my opinion, the property value increases are not due to actual property value increases, but are due to a reduction in the number of bank sales, which tend to sell for under-market values, and price-influential loan programs such as 98%+ mortgages through FHA and VA.  For example, over the past 90 days 57% of all sales were bank sales. During the same period 1 year ago 88% of all sales were bank sales.  At test of similar properties over the past year does not indicate a consistent and significant increase in home values.

Foreclosure activity remains high and future declines due to foreclosure related transactions are possible.  In the zip code 92583 there are currently 264 bank owned homes, 270 homes that are in foreclosure with auction dates set, and 137 homes with mortgages 60 or more days late, but that are not in foreclosure.

There is evidence that banks are holding inventory off of the market and I speculate that the banks are doing so with the intention of promoting market stabilization.  Evidence of this exists in the MLS where there are currently 19 bank owned home listings while there are 264 bank owned homes.  This indicates that the banks are not releasing 93% of the inventory onto the active market.  Should the entire bank owned inventory be released on the active market, property values could decline rapidly.

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